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Drawing more than one card against a split Ace. Five or more cards with the total still no more than 21 as an automatic win (a "Charlie") These are common misunderstandings that arise in everyday reasoning about probabilities, many of which have been studied in great detail. Many people lose money while gambling due to their erroneous belief in this fallacy. Although the gambler's fallacy can apply to any form of gambling, it is easiest to illustrate by considering coin-tossing; its rebuttal can be summarised with the phrase "the coin doesn't have a memory". Asian stud If you can't spot the sucker within the first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker. - common poker saying, as spoken by Matt Damon in Rounders; originally attributed to Amarillo Slim Notice that the gambler's fallacy is quite different from the following path of reasoning (which comes to the opposite conclusion): the coin comes up heads more often than tails, so it is not a fair coin, so I will bet that the next toss will be heads also. This is not fallacious, though the first step - the argument from a finite number of observations to a statement of likelihood - is a very delicate matter, and is itself prone to fallacies of its own peculiar kind.
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When the probability of each event is not even, such as with a loaded die, a number which has come up more often in the past may very well continue to do so, if that number is favored by the weighting of the dice. This has been dubbed Nerd's Gullibility Fallacy -- assuming the coin indeed is fair and the gamblers are honest when it isn't the case. This is an example of Hume's principle: twenty times tails on row implies that it is far more likely that the premise of a fair coin is wrong and coin is forged, than that the initial premise is correct and the next toss will be fifty-fifty heads or tails. The dealer places before him the amount he is disposed to risk, and the players "make their stakes." Any punter, beginning with the player on the immediate right of the dealer, is entitled to say "Banco", meaning to "go bank," to play against the whole of the banker's stake. If no one does so, each player places his stake before him. If the total so staked by the seated players is not equal to the amount for the time being in the bank, other persons standing round may stake in addition. If it is more than equal to the amount in the bank, the punters nearest in order to the banker have the preference up to such amount, the banker having the right to decline any stake in excess of that limit. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- the display doesn't ruin your eyesight. But online gambling is a notable exception. At most online casinos either the software doesn't work with Macs, or the casino is shady and you wouldn't want to play at anyway. I've been trying to find a Mac-compatible online casino off and on since 2000, without much success. But now (2005) things are getting a whole lot better. The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a coin. With a fair coin the chances of getting heads are exactly 0.5 (a half). The chances of it coming up heads twice in a row are 0.5?0.5=0.25 (a quarter). The probability of three heads in a row is 0.5?0.5×0.5= 0.125 (an eighth) and so on. Pai Gow Poker Mini-baccarat is essentially the same game, but played at a smaller table very similar to a blackjack table. A single dealer handles the entire game, including dealing the cards. The pace is usually much faster than the "big baccarat" version. Betting minimums and maximums are usually lower. In casinos outside of Las Vegas and Atlantic City, this is frequently the only version of baccarat that is offered. Cards are war, in disguise of a sport. - Charles Lamb, Essays of Elia (1832) Roulette is one of the most popular online casino games of all time. It has been played and enjoyed by enthusiasts and professional gamblers alike since at least 1765. Today's internet version of roulette is only the most recent development in the long, amazing evolution of an amazing and exciting game. [edit]
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